Je souhaite vous faire part d’une piste d’investissement concernant MBIA. Cette entreprise m’intrigue fortement car elle semble n'intéresser personne hormis son management. Celui-ci a racheté et annulé 74 % des actions en circulation entre 2014 et 2021 passant ainsi le nombre d’actions de 190,90 millions en 2014 à 49,5 millions au 30 juin 2021. C’est ce pari massif de la part du management qui a attiré mon attention.

Cette dernière phase, concernant l’absence de responsabilité financière de la part de MBIA découlant de MBIA Corp, me suggère que MBIA Corp cache réellement la valeur de MBIA National et que la découverte de cette valeur par le marché pourrait être un catalyseur.Book Value adjustments: Management adjusts GAAP book value to remove the book value of MBIA Corp. and for certain items which the Company believes will reverse from GAAP book value through GAAP earnings and comprehensive income, as well as add in the impact of certain items which the Company believes will be realized in GAAP book value in future periods. The Company has limited such adjustments to those items that it deems to be important when measuring financial performance and for which the likelihood and amount can be reasonably estimated.
Negative book value of MBIA Corp. - We remove the negative book value of MBIA Corp. based on our view that given MBIA Corp.'s current financial condition, the regulatory regime in which it operates, the priority given to its policyholders, surplus note holders and preferred stock holders with respect to
the distribution of assets, and its legal structure, it is not and will not likely be in a position to upstream any economic benefit to MBIA Inc. Further, MBIA Inc. does not face any material financial liability arising from MBIA Corp.
Deux risques principaux : le business modèle lui même et les obligations liées à Puerto Rico. Concernant le premier risque, je note cette phrase du management :
Concernant le second :The Company's operating subsidiaries are running off their portfolios.
We have reached agreements for all of our significant Puerto Rico exposures and we remain cautiously optimistic about the resolution of these insurance obligations, which will permit us to pursue the next steps for delivering value to our shareholders.
Le management semble croire au ratio risque/potentiel étant donné le rachat massif de 74 % des actions en quelques années. Les initiés, au niveau individuel, semblent eux aussi avoir du « skin in the game » puisqu’ils détiennent 12.5 % des actions en circulation. Pas d’achat ou de vente significatives ces derniers mois :We are pleased to see the debt restructuring agreements that will largely resolve National’s Puerto Rico exposure continue to progress towards confirmation and implementation. Once these debt restructuring plans are confirmed, anticipated to occur before the end of 2022, we will be in better position to implement our longer term strategic plans for the Company.

William Fallon, CEO :
As we have noted previously, we do not believe the financial performance of MBIA Insurance Corp. has an impact on MBIA Inc. shareholders.
During 2020, National acquired 26.4 million shares of MBIA's common stock at an average price of $7.50 per share. As of February 22, 2021, MBIA had 53.7 million shares outstanding. Since the end of 2016, the company has repurchased 86 million shares of MBIA common stock, which we believe has contributed substantial value to MBIA Inc. shareholders.
Book value per share decreased to $2.55 per share as of December 31, 2020 compared to $10.40 per share as of December 31, 2019, primarily due to the 2020 net loss of $578 million and nearly $200 million spent for MBIA Inc. share repurchases, partially offset by unrealized gains on investments and 26 million fewer net shares outstanding due to the share repurchases during the year.
We believe that the impact on book value resulting from cumulative share repurchases should ultimately improve shareholder value. In addition, the negative GAAP book value of MBIA Insurance Corp., which includes accrued but unpaid interest on its surplus notes, has materially contributed to the decline in consolidated book value.
MBIA's management believes MBIA Corp. does not have significant economic impact on MBIA Inc's shareholder value, which is why it is one of the book value adjustments implemented by management. In the event, consolidated book value could become negative in the future primarily due to MBIA Corp.'s negative contribution, it does not reflect any solvency issues for MBIA Inc. and it's also why, in many ways, statutory filings are more accurate portrayal of economic value at the operating companies.
Vadim Perelman de Foundation Partners :In the meantime, when you look at MBIA Inc., as you know, we've been bolstering the cash position and liquidity profile of Inc. the last several years. We repaid the remainder of Inc.'s 2022 debentures in the fourth quarter. So, with our cash position today, and there's not a substantial amount of debt coming due the next few years, we're really looking more toward the 2024/2025 timeframe when you just consider as-of-right dividends and normal investment income at Inc. So, we're well positioned for the next few years of the holding company.
William Fallon :I wanted to ask a big picture question. So, looking at the past few years, you've executed on a capital allocation strategy that, frankly, makes Henry Singleton and The Outsiders look timid. Since 2017, you've grown true economic value by 68% to $42 a share now almost, and yet the stock still trades at like a sixth of liquidation value, basically. This could be the most mispriced security in the stock market. I do a math and you guys have something like $1 billion of excess capital at National that you could distribute post Puerto Rico, which is 2.5 times today's market cap. What am I missing here? Stock could be up 3 – can still be trading at half of liquidation value. Oscar Wilde's famous last words were, either the wallpaper goes or I do. And this feels like the same. Like either valuation is crazy or I am.
Vadim Perelman :There's really not much I can say, right? You described some of the financial metrics accurately. As you know, we've repurchased a substantial amount of stock in roughly the last five years. I think it's over 60%. I mentioned 86 million shares. So, we don't comment, per se, on the stock price relative to some of the metrics. So, I'm not sure I can add much more to the commentary that you just laid out.
William Fallon :A follow-up to that, going forward, if you bought back an incremental 20 million shares even at $12, which I think you have the capacity for at National, I get to an adjusted book value or liquidation value, true intrinsic value of $59 bucks a share. And again, the stock is at, whatever, $7, $8. So, I'm just trying to figure out, this is third grade math, it's not differential equations. But, Bill, you own 2.4 million shares, I think. So, $60 bucks, it's $160 million of net worth, personally, which is pretty good. How do we get there? Like, how do you think about that? For shareholders, for yourself, how are you thinking about the situation? Incredibly valuable security in the equity.
Vadim Perelman :As you know, the key issue for the shareholders is Puerto Rico at this point. And everyone is aware of that. It's obviously a complex situation. There was, I think, quite a bit of attention last week with the PSA. And the fact that at least the parties involved, the words recently seemed to generate more urgency or indicate more urgency around trying to resolve Puerto Rico. Now, the key is whether the actions follow the words.
And then following up on some of the metrics that you have mentioned, the issue, I think, for shareholders is being able to move money from National to the holding company as the exposure that is the insured portfolio reduces and as the exposures reduce. So, that's how it works. And that's where the focus is. And as I've said for quite a while, the emphasis is on Puerto Rico right now because that's the key to freeing the cash up and reducing the sort of distressed exposures at National and then being able to move money up to the holding company. So, again, that's where the emphasis is.
Participant non identifié :You guys have done an extraordinary job, actually growing intrinsic value per share, even with Puerto Rico, even with not writing new businesses. It's, frankly, extraordinary. So, anyway, very excited to be partnering with you here.
William Fallon :It's a similar question to the gentleman prior. I've been a long-term shareholder, Bill, and grew up in the municipal bond business. And I guess my question has to do with enhancing long-term shareholder value. What is your plan post Puerto Rico to enhance shareholder value since we're not writing new insurance? What does the business look like two to three years down the road? And how do we make the stock perform the way we all think it should?
Robert Mattelli - Investisseur privé :In terms of what things look like at this point in time, after Puerto Rico, generically, there are a couple of things people could do. We as a company have looked at lots of different alternatives. I am aware of obviously other runoff companies that have looked to diversify, get into other businesses. We've looked at lots of things. We've concluded that the best thing for shareholders, given the situation, is to run off the portfolio – that is the insured portfolio – and get as much of the cash up to the holding company and available to the shareholders. That's how we think we can enhance shareholder value at this point in time.
And therefore, to your question, the real issue is one of being able to do that in large quantities, obviously, the amount of dollars coming from national, and the speed at which we can do it. And again, similar to the last caller, that all focus is on Puerto Rico. So, once we're able to do that, to the extent there are things that we can do to eliminate other exposures, sometimes you see refundings that have taken place in the portfolio. Many of those are not within our control. It's as municipalities refinance their exposure. But that's how I think we can increase shareholder value.
And again, that will continue to be the focus. So, again, it's Puerto Rico, and then it's getting the cash up to the holding company where we think we can really make it clear and transparent that there is value for the shareholders.
William Fallon :Am I right in thinking that, when you say you have capacity to purchase $250 million worth of shares this year, is that available for actual purchase?
Well, as Anthony mentioned, that number fluctuates and is measured every quarter. We do not currently have an authorization from the board, which is required to repurchase shares, but it is something that we continuously look at. And as we've done in the past, we've bought substantial shares. And we do believe that it does add to long-term shareholder value under the right conditions, essentially meaning the price that we can buy it at.